Climate and the Syrian Civil War

Abstract

The relationship between climate change and security represents a subset of environmental security, and a new area of multidisciplinary research. Although climate change is now discussed in the national security policy and doctrine of a number of countries, research linking climate change and security has been debated, and has not yet adequately dealt with high levels of uncertainty in the associated complex socio-environmental systems. This chapter examines the relationship between climate change and security using the Syrian civil war as a case study. Some policy makers, commentators, and scholars have proposed that the Syrian civil war was caused, at least in part, by a long–term regional drought during the late 2000s, and that the drought is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Others critique such claims, arguing that the effects of the drought, especially drought–induced migration, have been exaggerated, that it is not possible to attribute the drought to climate change (natural or anthropogenic), or that it is simply inaccurate to attribute the civil war to the drought in light of other, more significant socio–political factors. This chapter explores claims on opposing sides of the issue, in order to illuminate the ongoing debate. Finally the chapter summarizes lessons from the Syrian civil war as an environmental security case study, and suggests areas for future research.