Violence, Trust, and Public Support for the Colombian Peace Agreement

Abstract

Objective: As peace agreements have increasingly been put to a popular vote in places such as Northern Ireland, South Sudan, and Colombia, there is a corresponding practical and theoretical interest in understanding what factors influence public opinion toward the peace? We contend that support for peace in Colombia, as in other postwar contexts, is most powerfully shaped by individuals’ assessments of two critical factors—the level of violence experienced and trust in the conflict actors. More specifically, we hypothesize that greater experience with violence by the conflict actors and greater levels of trust regarding these actors are the critical dimensions of support for peace. Methods: We use a regression model of support for the Colombian peace agreement more generally, as well as voters' intentions regarding the peace agreement vote. Results: We find that support for peace is most heavily dependent on contextual violence and trust. However, those who most trusted the conflict actors were among those least likely to indicate they intended to vote, which may help explain why the peace referendum failed. Conclusion: Maintaining public support for the Colombian peace agreement will depend on rebuilding trust and providing government security and assistance in previously marginalized areas.