Mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties and damage cost through regression anaylysis using matrices

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties such as death, number of injured persons, affected families and total cost of damage. To quantify the direct damages from earthquakes to human beings and properties given the magnitude, intensity, depth of focus, location of epicentre and time duration, the regression models were made. The researchers formulated models through regression analysis using matrices and used α = 0.01. The study considered thirty destructive earthquakes that hit the Philippines from the inclusive years 1968 to 2012. Relevant data about these said earthquakes were obtained from Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. Data on damages and casualties were gathered from the records of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. The mathematical models made are as follows Lnŷ1 = -13.405 - 0.001x1+ 2.214x2- 0.013x3+ 0.374x4 - 0.001x5 Lnŷ2 = -13.426 + 0.360 x1+ 1.899x2+ 0.015x3+ 0.444 x4- 0.001x5 Lnŷ3= -16.905 + 0.083 x1+ 2.577x2- 0.043x3+ 0.630 x4+ 0.002x5 Lnŷ4= -17.075 + 0.234 x1+ 2.520x2- 0.033x3+ 0.383 x4 + 0.001x5 This study will be of great value in emergency planning, initiating and updating programs for earthquake hazard reductionin the Philippines, which is an earthquake-prone country.