Regional adaptation of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) to drought in Central European conditions considering environmental suitability and economic implications

Abstract

European beech (Fagus sylvatica) is a widespread deciduous tree in Europe, but may face significant distribution shifts due to expected increasing drought frequency under climate change. An alternative adaptation strategy for beech forests to improve drought tolerance and economic outcome consists in the admixtion of silver fir (Abies alba). To explore potentially suitable areas for mixing under future climate conditions, species distribution models (SDMs) represent a useful tool, but should be accompanied by economic analyses and uncertainty evaluations to serve as a solid decision basis for forest management. Therefore, in this study, we apply state-of-the-art SDMs, review uncertainties resulting from different modeling approaches, estimate the economic value of pure and mixed beech and fir stands, and discuss managerial implications of the results in Germany. Our model results projected widespread beech declines for Germany, while silver fir distributions remained largely constant. The degree of decline varied significantly between the investigated climate scenarios and resulted in associated economic losses between − 180 and − 4000 billion euros. With regard to the uncertain magnitude of climate change and the risk of high economic losses, we recommend an adaptation of beech forests in its projected hot spots of decline and find silver fir to be an environmentally suitable mixing species. The combination of ecological, economic, and uncertainty analyses used here represents a promising set of tools to evaluate climate change effects and assist in the regional adaptation of forests.