Project risk patterns: A comparison across three periods

Abstract

Aceh has experienced the critical event in three periods (political conflict, tsunami disaster, regular period) which they are different in risk characteristics. These critical events have inflicted on the sectors of life, including the construction sector. Some risk variables have been identified from previous studies that will be applied and analysis in this area by using risk assessment theory. In this research, we focus on the project risks in the three periods that it has an impact on the loss of profit on the contractors in Aceh. The potential risk variable and its pattern will be analyzed crossover in all the three periods. Qualitative risk analysis is used to describe the project risk of contractors who have conduct project in those periods. The potential risk variable, unofficial levies charges by bullies (P11), is the most extreme than other risks variables in the 1st period, has decreased in subsequent periods (2nd period and third period). The risk variable of P11 is the most avoided by the contractor because it is very influential on the achievement of the project objectives. This P11 variable not only emerged during the political conflict period but also in the posttsunami period due to social, economic factors, although it has decreased. This P11 variable not only affects the risk singly but also could trigger the other variable, thus providing a double effect on project risks, such as increased costs for safety and security in project areas (P5) and Increased labor costs due to increased wages (P6). The result of risk analysis using qualitative risk analysis method with Risk Important Index (RII) shows that risk variable of P1 (Bureaucratic of the owner delays payment terms), P12 (Contractors shortage of funds caused by the cost overrun on the project), has experienced decreasing from 2nd period to 3rd period. However, the hypothesis results show that the decreasing is not significant. It indicates that this test is critical to include in risk analysis, especially on the method of qualitative risk analysis.