Sigatoka negra ( Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet) y seguridad alimentaria. Escenarios bioclimáticos en bananos bajo efecto del cambio climático en Ciego de Ávila, Cuba

Abstract

The negative evidence of climate change of high importance for the future agricultural production and the need of food sovereignty and security, impose to develop research to predict the phenology of plants and their pests, mainly those of economic importance. The aim of this work is to interpret the epidemiological behavior of the black Sigatoka disease (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet) in banana for the years 2020 and 2025 under the effects of climate change in Ciego de Avila. There were made bioclimatic scenarios using daily data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and accumulated rainfall of 14 days generated by the Regional Climatic Model "PRECIS Caribbean" with boundary conditions of the global model ECHAM - 4 for future climate projections under scenarios of emission A2 and B2. The key indicators of this disease: "Sum of Speed " and the "Evolution state" of 4 leaves were obtained. The results show Sums speeds above 11000 thermo-physiological units, as well as a continuous and progressive increase in the "Evolution State" with values above 500 units during the analyzed years. We infers will occur an increase in the number of treatments and the plant protection cost, which implies the need to draw integrated management measures that include agro-ecological principles, search for resistant varieties to replace those susceptible to the disease that are currently used and strengthen the climate change adaptation and the resilience in the agricultural ecosystem. © 2016. Journal of the Selva Andina Biosph.