Implications of temporal trends in chronic illness burden

Abstract

With population ageing, people now enjoy longer life expectancy. Hong Kong is a shining example In 2011, 13 % of the population was aged 65 years and older, and this proportion is expected to rise to 30 % in 2041. As people are living longer, the burden of disease is expected to rise, which will be preceded by chronic non-communicable diseases (chronic diseases). Chronic diseases commonly encountered with ageing include cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, osteoporosis, and neurodegenerative diseases such as dementia. These diseases in turn predispose individuals to as well as magnify the impact of geriatric syndromes of sarcopenia and frailty. While findings indicate that there are some signs of decline or stabilization in the secular trends of mortality rates of most of these diseases in Hong Kong, these trends will be greatly offset by an ageing population. It is projected that by 2036, the number of people with diabetes, stroke, dementia, and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) will be at least more than double the number in 2006, with a corresponding impact in terms of disability and an enormous economic burden.