The Brazilian business and growth cycles

Abstract

This paper uses several procedures to date and analyze the Brazilian business and growth cycles. In particular, a Markov switching model is fitted to quarterly and annual real production data. The smoothed probabilities of the Markov states are used as predictive rules to define different phases of cyclical fluctuations of real Brazilian production. The results are compared with different nonparametric rules. All methods implemented yield similar dating and reveal asymmetries across the different states of the Brazilian business and growth cycles, in which slowdowns and recessions are short and abrupt, while high growth phases and expansions are longer and less steep. The resulting dating of the Brazilian economic cycles can be used as a reference point for construction and evaluation of the predictive performance of coincident, leading, or lagging indicators of economic activity. In addition, the filtered probabilities obtained from the Markov switching model allow early recognition of the transition to a new business cycle phase, which can be used, for example, for evaluation of the adequate strength and timing of countercyclical policies, for reassessment of projected sales or profits by businesses and investors, or for monitoring of inflation pressures.