Climate change effects on urban level: Citizen health and building energy demand

Abstract

The future impacts of climate change on citizen health and building energy demand have been researched considering two possible IPCC global climate scenarios: RCP 4.5 (stabilization emission scenario) and RCP 8.5 (little effort to reduce emissions). The climate scenarios have been dynamically downscaled from 1° to 50 meters of spatial resolution over three European cities: Madrid, Milan and London. Air quality has also been simulated up to streets levels. Climate and air pollution information are used as input to the health impact and building energy demand assessment tools. The impacts are calculated as future (2030, 2050 and 2100) minus present (2011). The short term health impact assessment includes mortality and morbidity related with changes in the temperature and air pollution concentrations. The larger increase of costs of mortality and morbidity was noted in the increasing scenario (RCP8.5) for year 2100, because RCP 8.5 is characterized by temperature increments. Maps of the spatial distribution of the costs of the climate change have showed Building energy demand simulations have been achieved with the EnergyPlus model using specific prototype buildings based on ASHRAE 90.1 Prototype Building Modeling Specifications and urban climate information by each building. The results show an increase in cooling demand with RCP 8.5 because future will be cooler that the present.