Migration Pattern As Threshold Parameter In The Propagation of The Covid-19 Epidemic Using An Actor-Based Model for SI-Social Graph

Abstract

Despite the benefits inherent with social interactions, the case of epidemics cum pandemic outbreaks especially the case of the novel corona virus (covid-19) alongside its set protocols employed to contain the spread therein - has continually left the world puzzled as the disease itself has come to stay. The nature of its rapid propagation on exposure alongside its migration spread pattern of this contagion (with retrospect of other epidemics) on daily basis, has also left experts rethinking the set protocols. Our study involved modelling the covid-19 contagion on a social graph, so as to ascertain if its propagation using migration pattern as a threshold parameter can be minimized via the employment of set protocols. We also employed a design that sought to block or minimize targeted spread of the contagion with the introduction of seedset node(s) using the susceptible-infect framework on a time-varying social graph. Study results showed that migration or mobility pattern has become an imperative factors that must be added when modelling the propagation of contagion or epidemics.