System Dynamic Model Simulates the Growth Trend of Diabetes Mellitus in Chinese Population: Implications for Future Urban Public Health Governance

Abstract

Objectives: To simulate the growth trend of diabetes mellitus in Chinese population. Methods: The system dynamic modeling methodology was used to establish a population prediction model of diabetes with or without cardiovascular diseases. Lifestyle therapy and the use of metformin, acarbose, and voglibose were assumed to be intervention strategy. The outcomes will be examined at 5, 15, and 30 years after 2020. Results: The projected number of diabetic population in China would increase rapidly from 141.65 million in 2020 to 202.84 million in 2050. Diabetic patients with cardiovascular disease would rapidly increase from 65.58 million in 2020 to 122.88 million by 2050. The annual cost for the entire population with diabetes mellitus in China would reach 182.55 billion by 2050. When the treatment of cardiovascular disease was considered, expenditure was 1.5–2.5-fold higher. Lifestyle therapy and the use of metformin, acarbose and voglibose could effectively slow the growth of the diabetic population. Conclusion: The diabetic population in China is expected to increase rapidly, and diabetic patients with cardiovascular disease will increase greatly. Interventions could delay it.