Predicting COVID-19 vaccination intentions: the roles of threat appraisal, coping appraisal, subjective norms, and negative affect

Abstract

Background: As a new disease, communities possess little natural immunity to COVID-19 and vaccines are considered critical to preventing and reducing the incidence of severe illness. This study, inspired by Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), examines the relationship between citizens’ threat appraisal, coping appraisal, subjective norms, negative affect, and their COVID-19 vaccination intentions. Methods: A sample of 340 citizens from two main cities in Mainland China, Xi’an and Wuxi, was used for data analysis. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was employed with latent and observed variables to test hypotheses. Data were analyzed using AMOS 24.0. Results: Several findings extend current understanding. Firstly, our proposed model explains 73% of the variance in vaccination intentions. Secondly, perceived severity only indirectly shapes COVID-19 vaccination intentions through negative affect. Thirdly, negative affect and response costs are negatively related to COVID-19 vaccination intentions. Finally, Perceived probability, subjective norms, response efficacy and self-efficacy are positively related to COVID-19 vaccination intentions; among them, self-efficacy contributes the most, followed by response efficacy and subjective norms, and lastly perceived probability. Conclusion: Theoretically, this study increases current understanding about subjective norms and affective responses. We provoke a certain amount of thought about the role of affect response in relation to threat appraisal and vaccination intentions. Specifically, governments must be vigilant that citizens’ negative affect, such as fear, may cause vaccine hesitation.