Prediction model on energy consumption of highway transportation in inner Mongolia based on ARMA

Abstract

Energy consumption of highway transportation in Inner Mongolia gradually increases, which seriously restricts sustainable economy development. So, this paper examines energy consumption of highway transportation prediction model using ARMA. Firstly, ARMA model is introduced. Then, based on the Unit Energy Consumption (energy consumption per unit Converted Transport Turnover) from 1999 to 2012, prediction model for Unit Energy Consumption is proposed using ARMA model. Finally, the Unit Energy Consumption in 2020 is forecasted according to the proposed prediction model. The study results of this paper provide useful evidences for drawing up the transportation 13th Five-year Plan and for formulating energy-saving and emission-reduction policy in Inner Mongolia.