Risks Evaluation of Sahand New Town 1226 Housing Project and Exploring Their Effects on Time and Cost of the Project

Abstract

The main objective of this research is Risks Evaluation of Sahand New Town 1226 housing Project by means of Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) model in Iran. PMBOK presents a set of standards and guidelines for project management. After reviewing the literatures, 22 risk items have been identified. 19 risks were finalized under 5 factors of Administrative, environmental , economic and political and organizational using exploratory analysis. Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method under four criteria cost, time, quality and safety was used to select 2 work packages as the most important work packages. Consequently , the activities of the selected work packages were obtained via opinion's experts. Then, the risks were categorized into direct risks and indirect risks using semi-structural interview with experts. Results showed that financial risk was known as most important indirect threat and risk of delay in supply and mistakes in construction were the most important direct threat. Finally, the impact of risks on time and cost of the project were obtained as the follow: the project with 90% probability would finish with 29.39 months delay. Similarly, with 90% probability will have 4003.837IRR increase in cost.