Indian monsoons variability and extreme weather events: Recent improvements in observations and modelling

Abstract

Understanding the variability of the Indian monsoon system is vital as it plays a vital role in the economy and agriculture. The two essential elements of the Indian monsoon are - the summer monsoon or southwest monsoon, during which most of the annual rainfall in India occurs from June to September and the Northeast winter monsoon that brings rainfall to the south-eastern part of India through north-easterlies during October to December. There are many instances of years with a flood (strong monsoon) or drought (weak monsoon) during which India as a whole receives excess or deficient seasonal rainfall, respectively. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) variability is highly determined by internal dynamics arising from ocean-atmosphere-land interactions and remote teleconnections via different climate modes (e.g., Goswami and Chakravorty 2017). 49% of employment in India is directly or indirectly involves agriculture and allied sectors. Thus, an advance intimation of monthly and seasonal rainfall will be highly useful and beneficial to the farming community which inturn will strengthen the country's economy.