Risk assessment of innovative projects based on fuzzy modeling

Abstract

This article is devoted to the consideration of innovative risk assessment approach. The approach includes two stages. At the first stage, as a result of fuzzy network modeling, based on fuzzy linguistic assessments of duration and cost of the job, the size of initial investments and the projected duration of the initial period of the innovative process, using β-distribution, are determined. On the second, random scenarios are simulated and the possible risk is calculated. This procedure combines fuzzy estimates and the Monte Carlo simulation. Fuzzy estimates of the model parameters of possible results allow us to take into account the uncertainty of the initial information in the process of simulating random values. In this case, for modeling random variables, the Gauss membership function is used, which determines the distribution of expectations of input variables.