The Future for Copper and Coal

Abstract

Although sustainability was popularised in the late twentieth century, it was also a concern in the late eighteenth century as evidenced in the writings of Thomas Malthus . In his sixteenth century text, De Re Metallica , Georgio Agricola also addressed the environmental impacts of mining. Although copper mining on the Iberian Peninsula took place over thousands of years, no single copper ore body will last forever. The question ‘is copper mining sustainable?’ is addressed by examining previous research into the question and exploring various methods researchers have used. The statement that an activity is sustainable if it enhances or at least does not decrease human welfare now or in the future implies that the relative cost of producing copper will not increase. More precisely, ‘will the future cost of producing copper including environmental cost increase or decrease?’ U.S. data indicate that in the past technological advances have reduced the energy required to mine and concentrate copper ores even though ore grades have decreased. In 2002, the cost of producing copper was less than in 1954. An econometric model predicts that the unit cost of producing copper in the U.S. in 2020 will be less than in 2002. What happens after 2020 is less predictable.