Climate Forecasts

Abstract

This chapter summarizes the various models and methods that FEWS NET uses to obtain forecasts of climate conditions for usein its monitoring capacity. Numerical weather forecasts for predicting rainfall conditions a week in advance were summarized.To extend these short-range forecasts with those that go out several months, FEWS NET partners have developed models thatuse canonical correlation analysis to relate variations in sea surface temperature with rainfall in Africa. Global forecastsfrom the International Research Institute at Columbia University are also used routinely to understand future variations inclimate. To help analysts understand these forecasts, a tool was developed that translates forecasts into actual rainfallamounts that may result. Finally, FEWS NET is developing statistical projections of its two most commonly used indices; rainfalland vegetation data. These projections are based on models that use observed conditions to estimate future variations dueto persistence in the atmosphere.