A novel and validated nomogram to predict overall survival for gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms

Abstract

Background: This study aims to develop and validate an effective nomogram to estimate the individual outcome of patients with Gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms (G-NENs). Methods: A total of 260 patients diagnosed with G-NENs at two medical centers were included, with 156 patients allocated as training set and 104 patients as validation. Predictive nomogram was constructed based on multivariate analyses using RMS package in R version. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were analyzed by C-index, risk group stratification and calibration curve, which was compared with other predictive systems for G-NENs. Results: In multivariate analysis, age, Ki-67, mitoses, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, serum tumor marker and distant metastasis were significantly associated with overall survival. The constructed prognostic nomogram demonstrated a good calibration and discrimination value with 0.884 and 0.852 C-indices in training and validation dataset. Compare to World Health Organization (WHO) grading system (C-indices=0.760 and 0.732) and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (C-indices=0.747 and 0.811), the nomogram displayed a better predictive accuracy. Conclusions: The novel prognostic nomogram showed superior predictive value in overall survival of G-NENs. It might be a useful tool for clinicians in estimating individual survival in G-NENs patients.