The good reader: Predictors of Portuguese students’ reading literacy in the PIRLS 2016

Abstract

In 2016, 4642 Portuguese students, randomly selected from all Portuguese regions, attending fourth grade in public and private schools, participated in the PIRLS 2016. In this edition, Portuguese students achieved an average performance of 528 points (SE = 2.3), 13 points significantly below the average observed in PIRLS 2011. In this paper, using hierarchical linear regression models applied to the students’ plausible values of literacy, variables at the students’ and the families’ level and at the teachers’ and the schools’ levels are identified that can better explain the variability observed in the PIRLS 2016 reading literacy. About 26% and 32% of this variability can, respectively, be explained by a reduced set of variables characterizing the student and their family, and teachers and schools. At the student and family level, student confidence as readers and the educational resources available at home are the best predictors of students’ performance variation. At the school and teacher level, the school’s emphasis on academic success and teachers ‘perceptions of students’ willingness to succeed academically are the best predictors of the observed variation of the Portuguese students’ performance in PIRLS 2016.