Scenarios for just and sustainable futures in the miombo woodlands

Abstract

We describe the current land cover of the miombo woodlands and review both current and future drivers of change that may influence land cover in years to come. We also explore possible future ecological and socio-economic outcomes for the miombo in light of the projected futures for the miombo countries in particular, and for the continent in general. Finally, we assess pathways towards desirable transformations (i.e. just and sustainable transformations) that secure in the long term the contributions of the miombo to improved quality of life. Climate change, human population growth, urbanisation, agricultural expansion and energy production are the major drivers of change in the miombo. The projected futures (2050) show significant temperature rise coupled with a decline in rainfall, a considerable increase in cropland and urban areas, and a decline in the extent of miombo woodlands. We explore options for decision-makers to support conservation and sustainable development in the miombo woodlands and to facilitate fair and equitable access and sharing of benefits arising from ecosystem services produced in these woodlands. Lastly, our analysis suggests that the combination of three pathways (scenarios) is more likely to lead to just and sustainable futures in miombo woodlands, supporting empowered and thriving local communities.