Decision support tool employing Bayesian risk framework for environmentally safe shipping

Abstract

Due to the significant increase of tanker traffic from and to the Black Sea that pass through narrow straits formed by the 1600 Greek islands, the Aegean Sea is characterized by an extremely high marine environmental risk. Therefore it is vital to all socio-economic and environmental sectors to reduce the risk of a ship accident in that area. In this chapter a web tool for environmentally safe shipping is presented. The proposed tool focuses on extracting aggregated statistics using spatial analysis of multilayer information: vessel trajectories, vessel data as well as information regarding environmentally important areas. The decision support system includes preprocessing, clustering of trajectories (based on their spatial similarity) and risk assessment employing probabilistic models (Bayesian network). Applications of the web tool are presented in areas such as marine traffic monitoring in environmentally protected areas, and influence of restricted areas in marine traffic. Results demonstrate that the web tool can provide essential information for maritime policy makers.