APAKAH BENAR VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI MEMILIKI KAUSALITAS DENGAN MINYAK SAWIT (PENDEKATAN PAIRWISE GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST DAN WALD TEST)

Abstract

This study intends to look at bivariate causality and multivariate causality of Indonesia's palm oil export volume, Malaysian palm oil export volume, world crude oil prices, soybean oil prices, exchange rates and world palm oil prices. The type of data in this study is secondary data (monthly for January 2008-December 2017), obtained from BPS, FAO, WTO and BI reports. To answer the problem in this study using the VECM model with the Pairwise Granger Causality Test and Wald Test approach to see the relationship between variables. The results of the bivariate causality test prove that there is a one-way causality relationship between the volatility of world crude palm oil prices and the volume of Malaysian crude palm oil exports and the price of crude oil, then the volatility of world crude palm oil at the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar. Then the Multivariate Causality test results explain that there is a two-way causality relationship between the volatility of world crude palm oil prices with the volume of exports of Indonesian crude palm oil and world soybean oil prices. The results of this study serve as a policy formulation in maintaining the stability of world palm oil prices and how the development of plantation and palm oil derivative industries. Keywords: