Effects of migration on vector-borne diseases with forward and backward stage progression

Abstract

Is it possible to break the host-vector chain of transmission when there is an influx of infectious hosts into a naïve population and competent vector? To address this question, a class of vector-borne disease models with an arbitrary number of infectious stages that account for immigration of infective individuals is formulated. The proposed model accounts for forward and backward progression, capturing the mitigation and aggravation to and from any stages of the infection, respectively. The model has a rich dynamic, which depends on the patterns of infected immigrant influx into the host population and connectivity of the transfer between infectious classes. We provide conditions under which the answer of the initial question is positive.