Estimate of Railway Line Capacity Under Adverse Operation Condition

Abstract

Amongst train operation factors that affect railway capacity, train speed is crucial. It fluctuates due to train operation equipment or facility impairments under adverse operation conditions. Firstly, the train operation models are transformed into Markov chain models (MCM). By solving the ergodic MCM, the actual speed of train can be estimated. Thus, the transfer probability matrix of train speed could be derived. According to the matrices, the transfer probability with fuzzy states using the conditional probability of the fuzzy event, the railway capacity can be estimated.