Police killings and violent crime

Abstract

A common view among policy makers in Public Security in Rio de Janeiro is that the patrolling pattern based on police raids, regularly associated with the use of lethal force, is both necessary and effective to reduce crime. In order to examine this issue, this article presents econometric exercises to assess in what extent a greater number of police killings is correlated with subsequent variations in criminal indicators. The analysis covers the period from 2003 to 2019 and indicates no correlation between increases in the use of lethal force by the police and reductions in crime rates at the local level. On the contrary, in some cases, a significant and positive correlation is observed, which means more police killings are correlated with greater criminal activity, although the magnitudes of the effects are rather reduced. On the other hand, we show that police killings are associated with greater operational results, as measured by drugs and weapons seizure. The results are consistent with a patrolling pattern that prioritizes the combat of retail markets for illicit drugs.