The third nuclear age

Abstract

Since the end of the Cold War, the bipolar competition and cooperation between the United States and Russia have sustained global strategic stability in the second nuclear age. However, destabilizing technologies in the hands of the United States, Russia, and China will markedly change the strategic landscape in the near future. This article asserts that a technology-enabled, multipolar competition will usher in the third nuclear age, which may be identified by three trends: (1) a new arms race with revolutionary weapons that challenge the existing deterrence paradigm; (2) an entanglement of nuclear and non-nuclear force and doctrinal development in the multipolar competition; and (3) a state-driven model of innovation. The article then concludes that new thinking on deterrence geometry, global governance of nuclear nonproliferation and arms control, and nuclear strategy will be needed to maintain strategic stability in the third nuclear age.