Will Climate Change Endangers the Current Mussel Production in the Rias Baixas (Galicia, Spain)?

Abstract

All coastal systems present a unique hydrodynamic configuration that Results in the development of numerous site specific fish and shellfish species. Nowadays, main topics of research include the climate change impacts on these coastal systems and the identification of critical conditions for resident species development considering their effect on local economy. The present study aims to investigate the climate change impact on the aquaculture sector in the Rias Baixas (Spain), where mussels are the specie with higher economic value. Local hydrodynamic changes were assessed through implementation and exploitation of a hydrodynamic model (Delft3D), in order to identify changes on salinity and water temperature patterns and their possible impact on mussel’s production. The first step on model implementation comprised the assessment of its accuracy performed through the calibration procedure, which included the comparison between observed and predicted sea surface elevation, salinity and water temperature for different monitoring stations. After, Rias Baixas salinity and water temperature were predicted for past and future scenarios (1995-2005 and 2090-2100, respectively), and changes assessed considering the range ideal for mussels production. It was concluded that Ria de Arousa and Ria de Vigo will be the most affected by climate change, since salinity and water temperature will surpass the critical values where aquaculture is profitable. The least affected by climate change is the Ria de Pontevedra as only salinity surpasses the critical values.