An international review of challenges and opportunities in development and use of crash prediction models

Abstract

Purpose: Over the past 10 years, building on road infrastructure data, crash prediction models (CPMs) have become fundamental scientific tools for road safety management. However, there is a gap between state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice, with the practical application lagging behind scientific progress. This motivated a review of international experience with CPMs from perspectives of application by practitioners and development by researchers. The objective of the paper is to improve practitioner understanding of modelling road safety performance using CPMs for crash frequency estimation, leading to their greater uptake in improving road safety. In short, why and how should road safety practitioners consider CPMs? Methods: Both scientific and practice-oriented literature was retrieved, using academic sources, as well as reports of road agencies or institutes. The selection was limited to English language. Results: From the review it is clear that developing CPMs is not a straightforward task: there are many available choices and decisions to be made during the process without definite guidance. This explains the diversity of approaches, techniques, and model types. The paper explains how some fundamental modelling decisions affect practical aspects of modelling safety performance. Conclusions: There is a need to identify CPM solutions that will be scientifically sound and feasible in practitioners’ context. Together with increased communication between researchers and practitioners, these solutions will help overcome the identified challenges and increase use of CPMs.