Interregional Inequality: Experience in Medium-Term Forecasting

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the analysis of macroeconomic aspects of the pandemic crisis with an emphasis on the socioeconomic development of Russian regions. According to the results obtained via neural network modeling studies, the authors make a conclusion of inequality at the meso-level to be deepened. All shocks have a similar negative impact on the economy of countries but current macroeconomic shocks have a sharply different impact depth and therefore different necessary anti-crisis measures both at State and regional levels. Short term consequences are already visible: labor market sees rising unemployment; trade sphere—sales reduction; healthcare system experiences is overloaded in terms of staff and beds; education—transited to distance learning revealing general unpreparedness of programs, staff and transition to a large-scale audience; social welfare is deepening inequality in access to means of isolation and technology. More pronounced negative effects should be expected in the medium term—“rainy day” funds depletion both at the micro-level of households and firms, and at the State level of the National Welfare Fund, the growth of regional and State budget deficits. Not only countries, but also regions need a specific approach to recovery and growth strategies that reduce inequality, as opposed to a growth for growth's sake strategy. The article presents an analysis of interregional gaps in the socioeconomic aspect from regional budget deficit point of view. The results of medium-term forecasting of socioeconomic development are presented via using, neuromodeling. The leading and outsider regions are identified.