The stage-classified matrix models project a significant increase in biomass carbon stocks in China's forests between 2005 and 2050

Abstract

China's forests are characterized by young age, low carbon (C) density and a large plantation area, implying a high potential for increasing C sinks in the future. Using data of provincial forest area and biomass C density from China's forest inventories between 1994 and 2008 and the planned forest coverage of the country by 2050, we developed a stage-classified matrix model to predict biomass C stocks of China's forests from 2005 to 2050. The results showed that total forest biomass C stock would increase from 6.43 Pg C (1 Pg = 10 15 g) in 2005 to 9.97 Pg C (95% confidence interval: 8.98 ∼ 11.07 Pg C) in 2050, with an overall net C gain of 78.8 Tg C yr-1 (56.7 ∼ 103.3 Tg C yr-1; 1 Tg = 10 12 g). Our findings suggest that China's forests will be a large and persistent biomass C sink through 2050.