Possible Tsunami Wave Heights in the Eastern Mediterranean Region from 1222 Paphos Earthquake

Abstract

The aim of this study is the simulation and visualization of the initial and maximum tsunami wave heights along the Eastern Mediterranean coasts inferred from a largest earthquake in history in this region. The earthquake considered in the study is 11 May 1222 Paphos earthquakes. The study was conducted to explain what the potential tsunami consequences caused by similar earthquakes occurring in the Eastern Mediterranean region could be in the future. The methodology used for the calculation of tsunami wave heights from the earthquake included the determination of earthquake parameters, modeling of the initial wave height, simulation of the wave propagation and calculation of the maximum wave heights near coastal areas. The numerical models were performed by using nonlinear and dispersive long wave tsunami models with GEBCO30 bathymetry data for a 0.25 arc-min calculation grid scale. The simulated waves were particularly high on the south shore of the Cyprus Island. Although the magnitude of the earthquake could lead to higher wave tsunamis occurrence, Cyprus Island as a barrier for Turkish coasts offers protection against such tsunamis. The arrival times of tsunami waves according to the possible large earthquakes around south of Cyprus was also calculated.