Tsunami Preparedness: Is Zero Casualties Possible?

Abstract

Inspired by the goal of Kuroshio Town, a coastal community in southern Japan, to have zero casualties from the next tsunami, this study will focus on a tsunami preparedness program to save everyone’s life. The first step in the program is to determine how many people in a tsunami hazard zone can be protected using existing horizontal and vertical evacuation procedures and shelters. The people who live or work in tsunami hazard zones but cannot or will not use these shelters are identified as “unprotected”. A possible solution to save the “unprotected” is to offer a shelter-in-place option to complement the horizontal and vertical evacuation options. Such a shelter-in-place option would provide protection for those unable or unwilling to use horizontal or vertical evacuation facilities. The shelter-in-place option would offer customized protection for individuals and businesses free of contagious diseases found in gatherings associated with horizontal or vertical evacuation shelters. To be effective, the shelter-in-place option must be immediately accessible to protect people from drowning, being crushed, being hit by floating objects, suffocation by ingesting silt laden water, fires, and hypothermia. An example of a shelter-in-place product is a patented, spherical aluminum capsule that floats on the tsunami protecting people from fire, cold water, being crushed, ingesting contaminated water, being hit by floating objects, and drowning. Since the capsule floats, there is no need to accurately predict tsunami flooding heights. This study includes numerical model simulations for 20 capsules subjected to 3 tsunami flooding scenarios in Newport, Oregon indicating the capsules have a low probability of being washed out to sea. Using a shelter-in-place option, along with horizontal and vertical evacuation options, zero casualties from the next tsunami is possible.