A Trend Analysis of Temperature in Selected Stations in Nigeria Using Three Different Approaches

Abstract

This study used daily observation data obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) to investigate the temperature trend of Nigeria from 1981-2015. The data were homogenised using the Quantile Matching (QM) method and Quality Controlled. The data have been transformed into three sets of data with different periods: daily, monthly and yearly. The datasets (daily, monthly and yearly) were checked for autocorrelation and if they were found auto correlated, the Modified Mann Kendall (MMK) and the Pre-Whitening (PW) methods were used and compared, if not the normal Mann Kendall (MK) test was applied. The results showed for the different methods, variations in the trend from one station to another and for the minimum and maximum temperature. These variations were observed in the different methods and data screening the performance of each of the methods in the datasets. The general trend was found to be increasing. The variations in the temperature increase the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) that impact human health and increase the probability of occurrence of extreme events.