Method of risk discernment in technological innovation based on path graph and variable weight fuzzy synthetic evaluation

Abstract

Risk in technological innovation is one of the important factors that hold enterprises from launching technological innovation. What cause the technological innovation risks is very complicated, and traditional methods of risk discernment can only draw general estimate on the risks. But enterprises need to understand the concrete links that cause technological innovation risks. For this reason, this paper puts forward a novel method of risk discernment in technological innovation, combining technological path graph with variable weight fuzzy evaluation, in order to clearerly, more accurately find the positions, in which technological innovation risks may take place, and evaluate the risks. Finally, the paper has verified the dependability of this method experimentally. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2005.