Performance of homeostasis model assessment and serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein for prediction of isolated post-load hyperglycaemia

Abstract

Diabet. Med. 30, 318-325 (2013) Aims To evaluate whether homeostasis model assessment and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein improve the prediction of isolated post-load hyperglycaemia. Methods The subjects were 1458 adults without self-reported diabetes recruited between 2006 and 2010. Isolated post-load hyperglycaemia was defined as fasting plasma glucose <7mmol/l and 2-h post-load plasma glucose ≥11.1mmol/l. Risk scores of isolated post-load hyperglycaemia were constructed by multivariate logistic regression. An independent group (n=154) was enrolled from 2010 to 2011 to validate the models' performance. Results One hundred and twenty-three subjects (8.28%) were newly diagnosed as having diabetes mellitus. Among those with undiagnosed diabetes, 64 subjects (52%) had isolated post-load hyperglycaemia. Subjects with isolated post-load hyperglycaemia were older, more centrally obese and had higher blood pressure, HbA1c, fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides, LDL cholesterol, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance and lower homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function than those without diabetes. The risk scores included age, gender, BMI, homeostasis model assessment, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and HbA1c. The full model had high sensitivity (84%) and specificity (87%) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.91), with a cut-off point of 23.81; validation in an independent data set showed 88% sensitivity, 77% specificity and an area under curve of 0.89. Conclusions Over half of those with undiagnosed diabetes had isolated post-load hyperglycaemia. Homeostasis model assessment and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein are useful to identify subjects with isolated post-load hyperglycaemia, with improved performance over fasting plasma glucose or HbA1c alone. © 2012 Diabetes UK.