Prediction of container throughput of Dalian Port Based on factor analysis and ARIMA model

Abstract

With the development of global economy, the competition of container throughput in ports in the world is becoming more and more fierce. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast the container throughput and determine the policies and measures earlier. In this paper, we use factor analysis and regression model to analyze the container throughput of Dalian port from 1985 to 2019 and get the main factor. We use ARIMA prediction model to predict the main factor sub coefficient of 2020-2025 and calculate the container throughput of Dalian port from 2020 to 2025. The results show that the throughput growth rate will slow down in the next six years, which is in line with the expectation of the 14th five year plan.