Energy-Efficient and Energy-Safe Development of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation: Restrictions and Prospects

Abstract

The paper explores the opportunities and limitations of reduction of the energy intensity of the gross regional product (GRP) in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation based on model analysis in the horizon of 2018–2035 under the development of the region with regard to the requirements of the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period until 2035. The calculations were carried out upon interrelated models of the economy and energy industry of the Samara region, which elaborated the scenarios of energy-efficient development of the region with the account to targets of state programs for energy economy and efficiency declared in the Energy Strategy. As a result of research, we found out that economic growth is the most important condition for the reduction of GRP energy intensity. Moreover, the higher the economic growth, the greater its contribution to the reduction of GRP energy intensity. The paper shows that a forty percent reduction of GRP in the horizon of 2018–2035 is feasible only under an average annual economic growth of at least five percent, even upon the ultimate implementation of all industrial energy economy and energy efficiency increase programs. Similar conclusions are true for the Russian economy in general. If the Russian economy develops at an average annual rate of less than five percent, then the main target indicator of the Energy Strategy (reduction of GDP energy intensity) by 2035 by over forty percent compared to 2007 will be theoretically unattainable. The article was prepared within the framework of the state assignment of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation No. 26.4131.2017/ПЧ, the project entitled “Development of methods and information technologies for macro-economic modeling and strategic planning of energy efficient development of the Fuel & Energy Complex of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation”.