Assessments and decreasing of risks and damages from outbursts of Tien-Shan high mountains lakes

Abstract

Great ecological risk in Central Asia results from natural and man-made catastrophes and cataclysms (earthquakes, slips and others) Kyrgyzstan numerous U, Sb, Au and Hg tailing storages are often located near main rivers with power hydro electric stations (HES) with huge reservoirs and Tien-Shan high mountain outburst lakes. Their dams destroys from disasters or directed terrorist acts may cause huge over damming break water wave with great irreversible negative responses on environment and populations and hazard pollution of vast territories. Geophysical and engineer -geologic studying of some huge lakes, including the uranium isotope indicator for water dynamic, show their outburst growing in result of water volume increasing and underground thermo caster processes. Possible outburst scenarios parameters, risk and damages assessments are under consideration. Results will be applied for lakes classification on dangerous levels, risk management and development of counter measures for prediction/prevention of lakes catastrophes and reducing of negative damages. This approach may be used for many dangerous objects, such as HES, oil pipelines and others.