Effectiveness of Structural and Nonstructural Measures on the Magnitude and Uncertainty of Future Flood Risks

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to assess the effectiveness of various adaptation measures in reducing the magnitude and uncertainty of future flood risks in Jakarta, a megacity in Indonesia. A flood inundation model and a flood damage costs model were developed to evaluate their effectiveness. Land use changes, land subsidence, and climate change were used to describe the future scenarios. The adaptation measures include both structural and nonstructural measures. The results show that recharge and retention ponds have the potential to reduce the magnitude and uncertainty of flood risks by 33.2% and 36.4%, respectively, which are higher than the potentials of the other structural adaptation measures. Among the nonstructural adaptation measures, managing land use zones could alleviate the magnitude of flood risks by 29.0%, with an uncertainty reduction of 19.9%. These findings will assist decision makers in selecting flood adaptation measures to address future environmental changes.