Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in a regional Victoria setting, findings from the crossroads studies (2001–2003 and 2016–2018)

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in regional Victoria at two time points (2001–2003 and 2016–2018), and to assess the use of electrocardiogram rhythm strips in a rural, community-based study for AF investigation. Design: Repeated cross-sectional design involving survey of residents of randomly selected households and a clinic. Predictors of AF were assessed using Firth penalised logistic regression, as appropriate for rare events. Setting: Goulburn Valley, Victoria. Participants: Household residents aged ≥16 years. Non-pregnant participants aged 18+ were eligible for the clinic. Main outcome measures: Atrial fibrillation by 12 lead electrocardiogram (earlier study) or electrocardiogram rhythm strip (AliveCor® device) (recent study). Results: The age standardised prevalence of AF was similar between the two studies (1.6% in the 2001–2003 study and 1.8% in the 2016–2018 study, 95% confidence interval of difference −0.010, 0.014, p = 0.375). The prevalence in participants aged ≥65 years was 3.4% (1.0% new cases) in the recent study. Predictors of AF in the earlier study were male sex, older age and previous stroke, while in the recent study they were previous stroke and self-reported diabetes. AliveCor® traces were successfully classified by the in-built algorithm (91%) vs physician (100%). Conclusion: The prevalence of AF among community-based participants in regional Victoria was similar to predominantly metropolitan-based studies, and was unchanged over time despite increased rates of risk factors. Electrocardiogram rhythm strip investigation was successfully utilised, and particularly benefited from physician overview.