Modeling risk and uncertainty: Managing flash flood risk in Vienna

Abstract

In this chapter, different concepts of risk and uncertainty are applied to the analysis and management of the risk of flooding along the Vienna River in Vienna, Austria. The methodology illustrates how, by the use of catastrophe models, it is possible to extend traditional engineering-based approaches to flood risk management to integrate loss spreading techniques (such as the purchase of flood insurance or the maintenance of a catastrophe fund) with traditional loss-reduction techniques (such as the construction of levees, floodwalls, or detention basins) and to give a full account of uncertainty. The results show that the greatest risk from flash flooding is to the Vienna city subway system, and suggest that combining available measures in an overall mitigation strategy results in decreasing total costs and reducing the likelihood and uncertainties of catastrophic financial loss.