Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Using SWAT Model, Middle Awash Sub Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Assessing the impact of land use and climate change on streamflow is important for watershed management. This study aims to examine the possible impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of the Jewaha catchment. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate streamflow by integrating complex interactions between climate and land use/cover. The past land-use changes were determined by classifying the Landsat images from 1990, 2000, and 2018 with Earth Resource Development System (ERDAS) Imagine 2015. The potential of climate change impact was examined under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios for 2041–2070 time horizon with the baseline 1971–2000. Climate change scenarios over the catchment indicated an increasing trend in temperature, in both RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, and variability in rainfall patterns in the catchment. The average annual temperature will increase by 0.1 °C and 0.15 °C for the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Generally, the result indicated that in the future summer streamflow highly increases due to climate and land-use change and a decrease in the dry season because of the changes in the climate variables.