A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with nodular melanoma: A population-based study

Abstract

The use of traditional American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging alone has limitations in predicting patient survival with nodular melanoma (NM). We aimed to establish a comprehensive prognostic nomogram and compare its prognostic value with the AJCC staging system.A nomogram was constructed to predict the 3-year and 5-year survival rates of NM patients by Cox regression. Several common model-validation parameters were used to evaluate the performance of our survival model.The multivariate analyses demonstrated that the age at diagnosis; being divorced, separated, or widowed; AJCC stages II, III, and IV; a regional SEER stage and the lymph-node density (LND) were risk factors for survival. The concordance index, the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration plots indicated that the nomogram performed well, while the net reclassification improvement and the integrated discrimination improvement showed that the nomogram performed better than the AJCC staging system. Finally, the decision curve analyses curves of the nomogram yielded net benefits that were higher than when using AJCC staging system with either the training or the validation cohort.The prognostic value of the nomogram is better than that of the AJCC staging system alone. In addition, we found that LND is an important risk factor for the survival of NM patients. The nomogram developed in this study may be a valuable tool for clinical practice when advising patients about their survival risk over the next 3 to 5 years.