Europe as a geoeconomic pivot: geography and the limits of US economic containment of China

Abstract

Intensifying strategic competition with China has introduced the need for the United States to consider extensive and stringent economic restrictions against the rising power. This article suggests that US economic containment of China is unlikely to materialise due to the presence of the EU states that are not militarily threatened by the geographically separated China and in a position to prioritise economic benefits in exchanges with that state. It first identifies the role of the EU in China’s foreign economic exchanges and addresses the ability of the EU states to replace the economic function of the United States in China. Then, it discusses how geographical conditions surrounding China make the rising state largely an East Asian threat. It suggests that, devoid of any direct military threat from China, the EU states can undermine the effectiveness of substantial US economic containment measures against China by functioning as alternative economic partners or facilitating China’s construction of alternative economic routes. Finally, this paper discusses the limitations in US ability to constrain the EU states’ economic exchanges with China. While concerns grow over Washington’s economic assertiveness against Beijing, the feasibility of a US-led upheaval in economic relations involving China should be carefully gauged.