Between the Eurozone crisis and the Brexit: the decade of British outward FDI into Europe

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) of British multinational firms in the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association members across 2009–2019 using Bayesian model averaging. We find evidence that supports the existence and dynamic behavior of the East–West structure of FDI between three groups of countries: core-EU, Central and Eastern European economies (CEE), and the Nordics. Further, we document the importance of relative market size, urbanization, the rule of law in attaining horizontal FDI in the core-EU economies. In turn, infrastructure spending and enhanced political stability are the most important drivers for FDI in CEE (post-2000 accession). Finally, our results highlight the negative effects of the Eurozone crisis and Brexit anticipation on British OFDI activity in the region. The findings remain robust when accounting for potential MNE profit shifting to partners such as Ireland, Luxembourg, and alike.