Temporal and spatial patterns in design–storm erosivity over sicily region

Abstract

This work illustrates an articulated approach for predicting storm erosivity at multiple spatial and time scales over Sicily, the major island of the Mediterranean Central Area (MCA). Starting from the long-term mean erosivity spatial pattern, a downscaling approach to estimate design-storm erosivity was exploited with the aim to map the climate hazard over Sicily referred to 5- and 20-years return periods during the nominal period 1950–1998. The spatial distribution of a Design Erosive Storm Hazard Index (DESHI) was considered as a random field, where the spatial structure varies with duration and recurrence interval of the erosive storms climatic forcing. The expansion of DESHI soft information from points to the whole island landscape was achieved using records from 106 raingauges. Lacking geospatial information was then derived by means of the indicator kriging interpolation via probability maps for practical questions involving communication uncertainty in detecting erosive-prone areas. This approach provides a first exploration of critical areas and helps identify where future infill sampling should be focused in supporting a more precise characterization and conservation planning.