Assessment of the variability of many years of thunderstorm activity in the aspect of potential threats to aircraft at selected airports in Poland

Abstract

The article presents an assessment of the long‐term variability of storm activity in the aspect of potential threats to aircraft. The analysis of data from the period 1970–2018 was conducted for selected airports in Poland: Gdańsk Lech Wałęsa Airport, IATA code: GDN, ICAO code: EPGD (54°22′39″N 18°27′59″E, altitude above sea level 149 m above sea level); Solidarity Szczecin‐ Goleniow Airport, IATA code: SZZ, ICAO code: EPSC (53°35′05″ N 14°54′08″ E, altitude above sea level 47 m above sea level); Poznań‐Ławica Henryk Wieniawski Airport, IATA code: POZ, ICAO code: EPPO (52°25′16″ N 16°49′35″ E, altitude above sea level 94 m above sea level); Warsaw Chopin Airport, IATA code: WAW, ICAO code: EPWA (52°09′57″ N 20°58′02″ E, altitude above sea level 110 m above sea level); Copernicus Airport Wrocław, IATA code: WRO, ICAO code: EPWR (51°06′10″ N 16°53′10″ E, altitude above sea level 123 m above sea level); John Paul II International Airport Kraków‐Balice, IATA code: KRK, ICAO code: EPKK (50°04′40″ N 19°47′06″ E, altitude above sea level 241 m above sea level). The purpose of this paper is to assess the long‐term variability of storm activity in the aspect of potential threats to air operations in Poland with the examples of six selected airports. In order to achieve the goal, an analysis of the frequency of storm phenomena in Poland was carried out both in annual and long‐ term terms. The analysis will allow the assessment of the geographical diversity of the distribution of storm phenomena and their variability in the years 1970–2018. The next stage of the work will be to determine the climatic conditions that exert the greatest impact on the formation of storms. The important factors include atmospheric circulation, which, over the Polish territory, is shaped by the influence of air masses from the Atlantic Ocean, the Baltic Sea and in addition, from the vast continental area. All these air masses clash over the area of Poland causing large variability in the frequency of occurrence of hazardous atmospheric phenomena. For this reason, the Polish climate is defined as a moderate warm climate with transitory features. The important factors affecting regional diversity are local conditions, such as terrain, nature of the land, and distance from water reservoirs. The thermal, humidity and aerodynamic properties of the substrate, which are components of radiation processes, determine the exchange of energy at the interface between the atmosphere and the earth, and largely determine the intensity of selected hazardous atmospheric phenomena. Each occurrence of a storm is a potentially dangerous meteorological event that threatens the environment and human activities, including all types of transport. The studied phenomenon of storms is particularly dangerous for air transport. Literature shows that storm phenomena in Poland are characterized by a large regional diversity, both during the year and over many years. The greatest threat of storm phenomena occurs in the warm period of the year—spring and summer.