Migration in China: A cohort approach to understanding past and future trends

Abstract

Internal migration trends in China are well documented, but existing studies rely almost exclusively on period measures applied to cross-sectional data. To examine long-term trends, this paper adopts a cohort perspective and analyses migration levels and patterns and reasons for moving for cohorts born between 1935 and 1974. It applies a series of newly developed cohort measures to nationally representative migration histories retrospectively collected as part of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2014. It then develops cohort projections of migration from birth to age 60 for cohorts born between 1955 and 1994. The results show modest but rising levels of migration underpinned by a reduction in lifetime immobility and a rise in repeat movement, largely caused by an upswing in employment-related moves and return migration. Cohort analysis reveals more stable trends than period measures, while showing significant sex differentials that have persisted across successive cohorts.