Impact hazard monitoring: Theory and implementation

Abstract

We review the most standard impact monitoring techniques. Linear methods are the fastest approach but their applicability regime is limited because of the chaotic dynamics of near-Earth asteroids. Among nonlinear methods, Monte Carlo algorithms are the most reliable ones but also most computationally intensive and so unpractical for routine impact monitoring. In the last 15 years, the Line of Variations method has been the most successful technique thanks to its computational efficiency and capability of detecting low probability events deep in the nonlinear regime. We also present some more recent techniques developed to deal with the new challenges arising in the impact hazard assessment problem. In particular, we describe keyhole maps as a tool to go beyond strongly scattering encounters and how to account for nongravitational perturbations, especially the Yarkovsky effect, when their contribution is the main source of prediction uncertainty. Finally, we discuss systematic ranging to deal with the short-term hazard assessment problem for newly discovered asteroids, when only a short observed arc is available thus leading to severe degeneracies in the orbit estimation process.